Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

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Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

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Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add to table

Need to add to table - Statistics computed directly from the raw data (sourced from WI DHS), stated without interpretation nor fuzziness.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 16 2020 658 15981 4 117 155
August 17 2020 668 16157 4 105 161
August 18 2020 673 16375 4 99 156
August 19 2020 679 16560 4 91 148
August 20 2020 687 16581 4 97 146
August 21 2020 699 16716 4 103 136
August 22 2020 706 16918 6 94 132

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 16 2020 274 10968 0 56 65
August 17 2020 279 11094 0 56 69
August 18 2020 281 11157 0 54 69
August 19 2020 284 11221 0 54 71
August 20 2020 288 11342 0 49 70
August 21 2020 293 11401 0 52 70
August 22 2020 293 11458 0 49 66

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 16 2020 326 6624 3 50 71
August 17 2020 328 6625 3 46 69
August 18 2020 336 6703 3 45 72
August 19 2020 343 6815 3 50 70
August 20 2020 346 6819 3 51 70
August 21 2020 347 6827 3 51 65
August 22 2020 353 6860 3 45 62

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
August 16 2020 65741 1060533 1039 7962 10817
August 17 2020 66196 1066040 1039 7428 10868
August 18 2020 66830 1075397 1052 6897 10774
August 19 2020 67493 1084163 1060 6939 10553
August 20 2020 68233 1093294 1067 7172 10454
August 21 2020 69059 1103038 1068 7274 10291
August 22 2020 70009 1110788 1081 7746 10076

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level. Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan) and SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based off of reference:

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 -- urge extra caution
> 28 > 40 decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 40 steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing '' '' ''
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7
10.4 3.9 4.1

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7
13.7 4.3 4.6

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7
17.3 31.7 707.6 818.4

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
  • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 24.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-09-12 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1182"

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